There has been much debate among market watchers about when this bear market will bottom out, following a turbulent first half of the year for equities. But Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer believes the end of this bear market will come “quite soon.” Mike Wilson, also the investment bank’s chief US equity strategist, told CNBC on Friday that this is because the economic cycle has been “extremely fast.” “The downturn itself, the V-shaped recovery … and then the timing of the Fed and … the peak in employment. So we’re just pushing through this cycle, much faster than we’ve seen in previous cycles,” he said. he. CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” “And that’s good news. Because that means the conclusion of this bear market is going to come pretty soon, you know, it’s going to be painful, but it’s going to be quick.” Read more Has the bear market bottomed? Goldman’s Oppenheimer comes up with his verdict — revealing where he sees “great opportunity.” Will the bear market end? Here’s an indicator that pros should keep a close eye on. Citi lists its “highest persuasion ideas” for the second half of 2022 – giving an 85% rise Last month, the S&P 500 fell into a bear market – or hit 20% off recent highs in January – and remains there for now. The Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have also fallen, by about 28% and 16% year-to-date, respectively. It comes after a rough first half of the year – the worst since 1970 – when fears of a recession and hot inflation caused investors to flee their stocks. At what level will the S&P 500 fall? The S&P 500 closed at 3,863.16 on Friday — and Wilson says if a recession hits, the low in the S&P 500 will likely be around 3,000. However, in a soft landing scenario, avoiding a recession, he expects the bottom to be around 3,400. However, he stressed that the strong dollar is a significant headwind for the index. “The S&P 500 is very dependent on currency,” Wilson said. “Straight away [the dollar is] up 17% year-over-year, and we think it could go even higher until the Fed flips. So you’re looking at somewhere between 8% and 10% headwinds for S&P earnings growth.” He added that even if there’s no recession, there’s still “meaning” downside earnings risk. That’s really the difference, said Wilson. Morgan Stanley is currently “very defensively oriented,” Wilson said, and overweight in healthcare, utilities and REITs.